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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – July 3, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

The forecast is becoming summer-simple: high temperatures around 90F each day with a greater or lesser chance of afternoon thunderstorms coming off the mountains. Our most stormy afternoons appear to be Tuesday (post day for this column) and Friday- Saturday. We do cool to the lower 80'sF briefly Saturday.

Forecast Discussion:

The dark green outline shows the deeper moisture (as it begins to move out of the state - Figure 1). The lighter green line outlines very dry air to our west. The chance of severe weather is marginal just north of Longmont up through Ft. Collins etc. (not shown).

The Longer Range Forecast:

We spend a few hours in the lower 90sF Wednesday and Thursday before we cool to the mid 80'sF then lower 80'sF Friday and Saturday. Afternoon storm chances are low, but still exist.

The 4th of July Forecast:

I have a red asterisks at about 9pm on the charts Figure 2 and Figure 3. The weatherunderground model has us at ab out 76F at 9pm with a 4% chance of showers and 25% cloud cover that is decreasing. The GFS based 7! Timer model (Figure 3) has us at about 63F with cloudy skies and showers occurring. It begins to clear after midnight. There is some clear disagreement - we'll keep an eye on it!

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image (browns/reds are dry air, whites and light grey is moist air, purple/blue is ice and high cloud tops). From the NWS.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The 2.5 day sky conditions forecast from 7! Timer (the GFS).
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, up to July 4th morning.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, up to July 4th late night.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

32°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.36 Steady
Visibility
4 miles
Dewpoint
30 °F
Humidity
93%
Wind
ENE 1.1 mph
Gust
2.2 mph
Wind Chill
32 °F

Hourly Forecast

Tomorrow
12 AM
33°F
Snow
Tomorrow
1 AM
33°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
33°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
33°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
4 AM
33°F
Snow
Tomorrow
5 AM
33°F
Snow
Tomorrow
6 AM
33°F
Snow
Tomorrow
7 AM
33°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
8 AM
33°F
Flurries
Tomorrow
9 AM
34°F
Snow
Tomorrow
10 AM
35°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
11 AM
36°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Rain and snow

Friday

41 °F

Chilly; rain and snow showers this morning with little or no accumulation followed by rain and drizzle this afternoon


Snow

Friday Night

32 °F

Periods of wet snow, accumulating 1-3 inches; roads could be slippery


Flurries

Saturday

39 °F

A bit of morning snow with little or no accumulation; otherwise, cloudy and cold; storm total snowfall 1-3 inches


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

30 °F

A shower in places in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

64 °F

Partly sunny and warmer


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

41 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Monday

79 °F

Warmer with a blend of sun and clouds


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday

66 °F

Mostly cloudy and not as warm


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:15 AM
Sunset
7:44 PM

Based on AccuWeather data