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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – July 11-12th, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Our hottest days of the next 10 day period are upon us (Thursday/Friday). Places on the Plains will reach 100F while we hover in the mid to upper 90'sF. Some moisture returns (monsoonal flow) and temperatures cool to reflect it...afternoon thunderstorms return for the rest of the 10 day forecast window.

Forecast Discussion:

For Wednesday, a weak cool front has pressed into northeast Colorado (Wednesday is posting day - Figure 1). This cooled us into the 80'sF Wednesday. That pushes off Thursday and an upper level ridge (blue line over the state and closed circle over the state in Figure 2) begins to dominate. We see mid to upper 90'sF here (and 100'sF not far out on the Plains). This heat will be about 10-15F above normal by Thursday afternoon.

The Longer Range Forecast:

That upper level high will drift off a bit to the east and the clockwise circulation around the high will allow some tropical moisture to ooze into the state (monsoonal-like moisture). Afternoon thunderstorms return Friday and the story becomes a broken record - days and days of highs in the lower 90F's, lows in the 60'sF with afternoon storm chances.

Figure 1: The southwest U.S. surface frontal analysis map from the weatherchannel.com.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Thursday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: The forecast temperature at the surface from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Thursday afternoon.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, for the next 3 days.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

64°F

UV Index
4 Moderate
Pressure
29.79 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
19 °F
Humidity
18%
Wind
SSE 4 mph
Gust
11.3 mph
Wind Chill
64 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
4 PM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
42°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
40°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

64 °F

More sun than clouds


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

54 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

32 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

48 °F

Cloudy and chilly with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data