Forecast Discussion:

Tabulated winds Monday were pretty impressive (nothing reported above 90 mph as some said was possible – Figure 1). Our story today is: yes, warm dry weather continues. High pressure is back in control today (Figure 2) with fading winds.

The next three days (snapshots just after sunset) will be 8-12 degrees above normal – Figures 3, 4 and 5. Pretty straight forward. But wait! What’s that in the longer range forecast below?

Figure 1: Chart of peak wind gusts measured Monday from Matt Makins via Twitter.

 

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Tuesday PM. From NCEP.
Figure 3: The surface temperature departure from normal for Tuesday PM from weather5280.com
Figure 4: The surface temperature departure from normal for Wednesday PM from weather5280.com
Figure 5: The surface temperature departure from normal for Thursday PM from weather5280.com

The longer range forecast:

A new (not very major) storm has appeared in the model data (the GFS – Figure 6) and at weatherunderground.com’s model. That storm, if it materializes, will cool us to near normal temperatures again (lower 40’s F) and bring a chance of rain. We’ll keep an eye on it!!

Figure 6: 10 day meteogram from weather5280.com for DIA.
SHARE
Previous articleHow Longmont’s Municipal Code is Managed
Next articleMorning Brief: City Council is Recruiting to Fill Vacancies on Advisory Boards and Commissions
John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

Leave a Reply