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Forecast Discussion:
High pressure at the surface and a ridge aloft mean mild weather continues to rule. A juicy storm is impacting the West Coast of the U.S. (Figure 1), but that will spend itself by the time it reaches the western slopes of Colorado (we'll check on snow amounts in Figure 3).
The longer range forecast:
There might be a few sprinkles or snow flurries that make it over the mountains down onto the plains and I-25 Sunday night or Monday morning, but down slope flow warming will counter the cool front's cooling. We just don't change much in temperature the next 10 days (Figure 2).
A check on the GFS and the next 10 days of snow for the state, things have dried out a lot in a couple of forecast days. Figure 3 shows Longmont only getting a dusting to 1/2 inch of snow over the next two 'storms.'
That creates a nice segue to checking on our state drought index map (Figure 4). The edges of boulder county are starting to see abnormally dry conditions. The southwestern counties are still in extreme to exceptional drought conditions. We need snow!!
The atmosphere is in a mild El Nino/ENSO state (Figure 5) and is expected to have a good chance of remaining in that state into later this year. Historically that implies slightly above normal precipitation chances this season (January- March) for northern Colorado and even better chances for southern Colorado. Temperatures are expected above normal for the state through the next three months as well (Figure 6). Lets bring on that precipitation!
