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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 26, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

It was easier to put the snow reports in today for the day before yesterday. Longmont received about 3 inches over much of the town, which was an inch more than I had forecasted.  The GFS actually did a good job with this one (Figure 1)! Boulder saw 2-3 inches which was closer to my range.

Today, no major storms are sitting near the state, but the mid-level flow and a ripple in the northwest upper air flow will keep a small area of snow flurries going in the mountains today (Figure 2). Otherwise, we'll be warmer, almost reaching 50°F today.

The longer range forecast:

The upper-air pattern by the end of the weekend continues to be dominated by a giant trough in the center of the nation. Ripples in the northwest flow are stacked up to pass over (Figure 3). There isn't much moisture around, though, so the front that will sweep down Sunday PM will chill us to the 30's F (after almost hitting 60°F on Sunday) and some snow is possible (Figure 4). It is looking less significant as that day approaches.

The GFS shows us getting a coating to an inch of snow by Tuesday (Figure 5). Further out, there is another blip on the radar (almost literally) at the end of the week. Enjoy this weekend!

Figure 1: new Snow totals for Friday up to 7am Tuesday for Boulder county from CoCoRaHS.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Saturday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Sunday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 4: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Tuesday noon.

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

52°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
30.06 Falling
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
43 °F
Humidity
71%
Wind
SSE 1.7 mph
Gust
3.9 mph
Wind Chill
52 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 AM
57°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
61°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
65°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
69°F
Mostly sunny
Today
2 PM
73°F
Mostly sunny
Today
3 PM
74°F
Mostly sunny
Today
4 PM
76°F
Mostly sunny
Today
5 PM
74°F
Mostly sunny
Today
6 PM
72°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 PM
69°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
61°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Wednesday

76 °F

Mostly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

42 °F

Patchy clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday

74 °F

Becoming cloudy; breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm in spots


Cloudy

Thursday Night

49 °F

Considerable cloudiness


Showers

Friday

67 °F

Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

46 °F

Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms


Showers

Saturday

50 °F

Cloudy and chilly with a couple of showers


Rain

Saturday Night

39 °F

Cloudy with steady rain becoming intermittent


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

59 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; a stray afternoon thundershower


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:08 AM
Sunset
7:49 PM

Based on AccuWeather data