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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 21, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

I'm getting this column squeaked out right after the eclipse (where the skies cleared wonderfully at the last minute - it was great meeting those who came. Thank you for the kind words about that event and this column).  Today (Monday - a holiday for you?) will be warm and dry - with southwest wind flow over the state.  The next storm moves in tonight and will be covering the state by Tuesday AM (Figure 1).

Figure 2 shows that the strongest period of lift and up slope flow will be brief - mainly 9pm to 12am tonight, but some showers are possible off into Tuesday midday.  This model gives us a coating to an inch (down slope flow will dominate the storm for areas north of Boulder up I-25). Figure 3, the GFS, gives us a coating to 1 inch as well.  The forecasters at weather5280.com (Figure 4) hand-drew this forecast and put it on their discussion column Sunday night.  They gave Longmont 0-2 inches of snow.  Everything seems to be in agreement that we won't get much snow (and you can see the down slope effects north of Boulder along I-25 here as well).

The longer range forecast:

From Figure 2 there is another 0 to 1 inch storm expected Thursday and something out a week from not that end up being about 1 inch in depth.  Beggars can't be choosers with the weather - I guess.  More on those storms in the days to come!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Tuesday AM. From NCEP.

Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Figure 3: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Tuesday night.

Figure 4: the hand drawn snowfall forecast from the forecasters at weather5280.com (highly recommend reading their info as well!!).

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

64°F

UV Index
5 Moderate
Pressure
29.84 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
29 °F
Humidity
27%
Wind
NW 14.3 mph
Gust
25.2 mph
Wind Chill
64 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 PM
68°F
Showers
Today
3 PM
70°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
69°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
68°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
67°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
61°F
Mostly clear
Today
9 PM
58°F
Mostly clear
Today
10 PM
55°F
Clear
Today
11 PM
53°F
Clear
Tomorrow
12 AM
51°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
50°F
Mostly clear

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ showers

Tuesday

68 °F

Variable cloudiness with a couple of showers, mainly later; windy


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday

73 °F

Warm with some sun, then turning cloudy


Rain and snow

Wednesday Night

36 °F

Breezy in the evening with a shower in spots followed by rain and snow showers late


Rain and snow

Thursday

46 °F

Cloudy and chilly with a couple of showers of rain or snow


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

35 °F

Mostly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

52 °F

Warmer with some sun, then turning cloudy


Rain and snow

Friday Night

32 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers in the evening followed by a mix of snow and rain late


Rain and snow

Saturday

50 °F

A morning rain or snow shower in spots; otherwise, cloudy and cool


Mostly cloudy

Saturday Night

29 °F

Areas of low clouds


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:20 AM
Sunset
7:41 PM

Based on AccuWeather data