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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 2, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Our system has side down into Mexico with cold air off into the Gulf of Mexico (Figure 1 and Figure 2).  For today, the trough is still sliding very slowly eastward as a big ridge nudges in from the west (Figure 3).  That spells big warm up soon...

Figure 1: The current surface map from Tuesday PM and the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The current surface temperatures from Tuesday PM. Remarkable cold 'circled' in red.

Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

The longer range forecast:

By the end of the week, the ridge will be in place (even if there is a southern-branch trough/cut-off low over TX/LA) - Figure 4.  We warm quickly as that cold air leaves and is replaced by compressional heating/down slope flow over Colorado (Figure 5).  We may top 60F for highs near Longmont Friday.  The weekend storm still looks like - not much.  A new storm is lurking 10 days out.  We have seen most of these fade out to nothing as the actual day arrives.  I'm not sharpening my snow shovel yet. The dryness continues.

Figure 4: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Friday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 5: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

52°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
30.06 Falling
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
43 °F
Humidity
71%
Wind
SSE 1.7 mph
Gust
3.9 mph
Wind Chill
52 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 AM
57°F
Mostly sunny
Today
11 AM
61°F
Mostly sunny
Today
12 PM
65°F
Mostly sunny
Today
1 PM
69°F
Mostly sunny
Today
2 PM
73°F
Mostly sunny
Today
3 PM
74°F
Mostly sunny
Today
4 PM
76°F
Mostly sunny
Today
5 PM
74°F
Mostly sunny
Today
6 PM
72°F
Mostly sunny
Today
7 PM
69°F
Mostly sunny
Today
8 PM
65°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
61°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Wednesday

76 °F

Mostly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

42 °F

Patchy clouds


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Thursday

74 °F

Becoming cloudy; breezy in the afternoon with a thunderstorm in spots


Cloudy

Thursday Night

49 °F

Considerable cloudiness


Showers

Friday

67 °F

Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

46 °F

Cloudy with showers and thunderstorms


Showers

Saturday

50 °F

Cloudy and chilly with a couple of showers


Rain

Saturday Night

39 °F

Cloudy with steady rain becoming intermittent


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

59 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer; a stray afternoon thundershower


Partly cloudy

Sunday Night

38 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:08 AM
Sunset
7:49 PM

Based on AccuWeather data