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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 17, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

So much moisture is flowing into the west, there aren't many dry spots to find.  Snow continues today in western Colorado and higher Colorado mountains (Figure 1).  For Friday morning, snow increases a lot over the western half of the state and a low forms in SE Colorado that will send moisture back west. Up slope flow will bring rain/snow back to our area (Figure 2).

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday PM. From NCEP.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Friday AM. From NCEP.

The longer range forecast:

The weather underground forecast is looking less impressive for Friday (Storm #1, Figure 3). They have showers from about 6am to 8pm Friday, but not many of them (and all rain with temperatures above 40F).

The GFS (Figure 4) skips Boulder on snow, and gives a minimal coating to Longmont.  The NAM (Figure 5) has us on the edge of no-snow but maybe a coating to an inch.  Not impressive.

Back to Figure 3, the eclipse looks like it will see temperatures above freezing (barely) for the duration of the event and less cloud cover than we saw in the forecast yesterday.

Now there is a more substantial storm (Storm #2) showing up on Monday/Tuesday next week.  This is coming in at 1-3 inches for Longmont, presently.  I'll believe THAT when it happens.

Figure 3: a snippet of the graphical forecast for the weekend forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, for the next 5 days through Sunday noon.

Figure 5: The forecast accumulated snow map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through Sunday noon.

Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

68°F

UV Index
8 Very High
Pressure
29.59 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
29 °F
Humidity
24%
Wind
WNW 6.1 mph
Gust
13 mph
Wind Chill
68 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 PM
68°F
Showers
Today
2 PM
69°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
70°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
68°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
66°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
6 PM
61°F
Thunderstorms
Today
7 PM
58°F
Thunderstorms
Today
8 PM
56°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
53°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
51°F
Thunderstorms
Today
11 PM
49°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
48°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

70 °F

Variable cloudiness; a morning shower in spots followed by a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

44 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

47 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data