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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 13-15, 2020

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

Hold on, I'm looking something up... tedious, dull, monotonous, repetitious, unvaried, dry... OK those were synonyms for boring. Except for a slight chill and a couple of dry cold fronts, Longmont will see very little variation in the weather for the next week or more. That just means that exciting winter weather is building up for a big hit later this season! (I hope.)

Forecast Discussion:

Snow continues in the mountains with most to all ski resorts getting a daily addition of fresh powder (Figure 1). We'll see warming down-slope flow here with some gusty windy conditions this afternoon (Monday). The upper air pattern this week is very "zonal" or flowing west to east. There is a gentle troughniess in the West with small short waves embedded in the flow. These troughs aren't deep enough or slow enough to pull in moisture east of the Rockies (Figure 2). We remain dry.

The Longer Range Forecast:

We will see about 5-8 degrees of cool down from a dry cool front Wednesday afternoon and again Friday afternoon (Figure 3). The rest of the time we'll rise to about 50F each afternoon. Those fronts do mean that the mountains will see a bit more enhanced snow fall rates (good for them!).

The first front is approaching Tuesday night (Figure 4). The upper air pattern rebounds to a shallow ridge heading into Thursday (Figure 5) - allowing us to quickly warm again to 50F (watch for down slop winds every 'warm' day). Over the next 10 days the mountains see a foot to a foot and a half in the higher mountains, but no snow occurs down on the Plains (Figure 6).

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Monday noon from NCEP.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for early Monday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: The forecast surface map for Tuesday night from NCEP.
Figure 5: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for early Wednesday PM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 6: 10:1 (snow to liquid) snowfall totals through the next 10 days from the GFS and tropicaltidbitscom for Colorado made Monday morning.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

69°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
29.59 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
33 °F
Humidity
26%
Wind
WNW 5.5 mph
Gust
11.3 mph
Wind Chill
69 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 PM
69°F
Thunderstorms
Today
3 PM
70°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
68°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
66°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
6 PM
61°F
Thunderstorms
Today
7 PM
58°F
Thunderstorms
Today
8 PM
56°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
53°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
51°F
Thunderstorms
Today
11 PM
49°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
48°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
48°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

70 °F

Variable cloudiness; a morning shower in spots followed by a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

44 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

47 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data