Forecast Discussion:

6pm Update:

The forecast turned out pretty close to my forecast…

Longmont received about 1/2 inch, Boulder received 2-4 inches.  Now for a long cold night…

Figure 1 update: The snowfall totals as of 7am Tuesday 1/1/2019 from CoCoRaHS.

End 6pm Update.

Posting early, before the eggnog takes hold… snow is tapering off and I’ll update with snow reports in the am (official reporting is at 7 am MT). Immediately, the critical item is the cold tonight. The NWS has issued a…

Wind Chill Advisory
Issued: 6:54 PM Dec. 31, 2018 – National Weather Service
...WIND CHILL ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 AM MST TUESDAY...
...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WILL EXPIRE AT 5 PM MST THIS
AFTERNOON...

* WHAT...Very cold wind chills expected. Wind chills as low as
20 below zero expected.
* WHERE...Denver, Boulder and the western suburbs of Denver.
* WHEN...Through 8 AM MST Tuesday.
* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The cold wind chills could cause
frostbite on exposed skin in as little as 30 minutes.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A Wind Chill Advisory means that cold air and the wind will
combine to create low wind chills. Frostbite and hypothermia can
occur if precautions are not taken. Make sure you wear a hat and
gloves.

The longer range forecast:

Figure 1 shows the likely upper teens F high for today (Tuesday) as snow flurries taper off in the early morning. Temperatures rocket up as a ridge builds in the West giving us possible 60’s F for a high on Friday. Wow.

The ‘mimic’ storm next weekend has become less of an ‘item’ at present. We’ll watch it as the new year begins. Happy New Year all!

Figure 1: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

 

Wind Chill Advisory
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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