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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 9, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Before we look at our very small chance of snow Saturday night, let's look at the season snowfall to date (Figure 1). My home, in NE Longmont, has received 45.2 inches of snow since September (that is amazing to me too). That matches the purple shade for Longmont in this figure. Places in the mountains have received tremendous amounts of snow. Overall, the state is at 111% of normal as snow fall goes. Good news.

Today (Saturday) temperatures return to just somewhat below normal for the date - Figure 2 (about 48°F for today). The cool front passes around 3 pm.

The longer range forecast:

Figure 3 is the upper-air pattern for Sunday showing a trough passing and a deeper one approaching from the west. The problem is there is little moisture expected to be available to the system east of the Rockies. The mountains will keep getting shot after shot of new snow. The surface map for Sunday am (Figure 4) shows precipitation remaining over the western slopes and higher mountains and northern Colorado Rockies. We 'may' see some snow sneak off, but it won't be much. Figure 5 is the GFS take on snowfall over the next 5 days. We have a coating to 1 inch touching the eastern side of the town and just down the road in Boulder.

After this weekend, we bounce around in the 30's F and 40's F with our next chance of snow coming Thursday. More on that later!

Figure 1: Snowfall totals posted on Twitter by Matt Makins.
Figure 2: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Saturday noon.
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Sunday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 4: The forecast surface map for Sunday AM. From NCEP.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Wednesday (5 days out).

Current Weather

Mostly clear

Mostly clear

56°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.76 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
24 °F
Humidity
29%
Wind
W 4.3 mph
Gust
10.9 mph
Wind Chill
56 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
39°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
6 AM
34°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
7 AM
35°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
8 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

65 °F

Partly sunny


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy with a shower


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

53 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data