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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 22, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion: (Posted early as the next storm arrives tonight.)

With one more foot (and locally up to 3 feet) of snow expected today through Saturday in the southwestern mountains of our state, this post by Matt M. on Twitter caught my eye. Figure 1 is the snowfall so far this season. The statewide snowfall total is at about 115% above normal.

Our new storm is already hitting the mountains but won't do much to the Plains until tonight. This system is powered by a deep, quickly moving, trough in the upper air flow (Figure 2, big red line).

A chance of showers sneaking off the mountains begins this afternoon, but snow showers will more likely start closer to midnight. There is another elevated chance of snow Friday afternoon into the night. This storm slips away Saturday morning (Figure 3).

Through midnight, banded snow (yes, all the models show jet-driven banded snow will occur again) will be confined mainly to the mountains (the HRRR in Figure 4).

For the entire event, the GFS gives us about 1-2 inches of snow with a big band up to Boulder and into Boulder county. More could surprise us (Figure 5). The NAM (in Figure 6) shows the banding as well BUT puts us more under the 'Boulder county' band and gives us more like 3-5 inches (which is a consistent feature of this model from yesterday).

The longer range forecast:

After this snow, we warm to the upper 40'sF and lower 50'sF and have quiet weather through next week.

Figure 1: the snowfall so far this season for Colorado from Matt Makens via Twitter.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Friday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snow map from the HRRR and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Thur/Fri midnight.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Saturday morning.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snow map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through Saturday AM.

Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

32°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.98 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
26 °F
Humidity
76%
Wind
WNW 2.2 mph
Gust
4.9 mph
Wind Chill
32 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 AM
35°F
Mostly sunny
Today
9 AM
42°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
48°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
53°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
57°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
62°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
62°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
57°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

64 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

54 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Becoming cloudy with a shower in spots late


Showers

Monday

50 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

31 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data