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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 18, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

I'm publishing early as the storm is getting underway Sunday afternoon and will extend through the next 48+ hours. Snow is beginning to form in up-slope flow, up and down I-25 already. Figure 1 shows that snow will begin everywhere by 6 pm. There will be on and off light snow showers with dropping temperatures through Wednesday am.

Figure 2, the HRRR, only has a trace to coating of snow by 4 am (so this won't be a massive snow storm in any way). Over the next 24 hours, the forecasters at weather5280.com give us a trace to 3 inches.

The longer range forecast:

Going out to Wednesday pm the GFS (Figure 4) has us receiving 1-2 inches of snow. Note that snow ratios will be higher than 1:10 since temperatures will be so low. The snow will be fluffier and deeper for the same amount of water.

The NAM, for the same time period, has us receiving 2-3 inches (Figure 5). We stay chilly through Saturday with another system bringing snow in Friday. More on that later! Stay warm as highs sit in the teens Monday and Tuesday and lows drop to the single digits again.

Figure 1: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 2: the forecast accumulated snow map from the HRRR and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Monday 4am.
Figure 3: The hand drawn 24 hour snow forecast from the forecasters at weather5280.com published on the public post Sunday afternoon.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Wednesday late PM.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through Wednesday late PM.

Current Weather

Heavy rain

Heavy rain

50°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.75 Rising
Visibility
5 miles
Dewpoint
46 °F
Humidity
85%
Wind
N 3.3 mph
Gust
7.1 mph
Wind Chill
50 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
9 PM
49°F
Thunderstorms
Today
10 PM
48°F
Thunderstorms
Today
11 PM
48°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
47°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
45°F
Rain
Tomorrow
4 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
45°F
Rain
Tomorrow
6 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
7 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
8 AM
44°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

69 °F

Variable cloudiness with a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

41 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

44 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data