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Forecast Discussion:
The 'storm' is underway this Valentine's evening (the temperatures dropped 20 degrees F between late morning and 7 pm). The weather map for Friday am is very bullish on precipitation covering all of the state (Figure 1). When we get into the finer details, it really looks like not much happens here in town (the mountains get BURIED though).
The chance of rain/snow is, at best, 20% through Friday am (Figure 2). We still climb to the 50's F Friday.
The HRRR model, only through 8 am Friday, shows water of some kind (measurable liquid equivalent) coming down to just west of Longmont (Figure 3) and no further. The very light snow dusting seems to make it to Main Street (Figure 4). The show, from the GFS, through Saturday also skips Longmont (Figure 5).
The longer range forecast:
By Sunday, a big trough moves in and sits over the western U.S. (red line to our west in Figure 6). Starting Sunday, with this upper-air pattern in place, we cool to highs in the 30's F for the foreseeable future. There seems to be a snow storm at the start of the week, but we will be lucky to get an inch or two at this point. The GFS for the next 10 days (Figure 7) puts Longmont in a down-slope-flow-snow-hole with just an inch or so.
