Forecast Discussion:

Happy Valentines Day everyone!

We warm to mid 50’sF again today with some more down slope winds and compression ahead of a weak cold front slipping in from the northeast (Figure 1). This front will make it back to the lower foothills tonight before pulling away tomorrow.

With this front, we’ll see clouds increase and a chance of showers (snow) this evening (Figure 2). The snowfall through Saturday noon is minimal here in town, but quite impressive in the nearby mountains (1.5 feet in many places – Figure 3).

The Valentines Night forecast:  Breezy, with snow flurries possible. temperatures just above freezing at dinnertime and dropping to freezing before midnight. Cloudy skies (not much of a romantic moon out, but it will be up just past 1st quarter). 

The longer range forecast:

We return to the 50’sF on Friday but a much stronger series of cold fronts begin to hit Saturday PM. By Monday morning we are cold enough to stay below freezing all day and are about 15F below normal (Figure 4). Amazingly cold air is sitting out just east of us. The 10 day snowfall is now sitting at 3-4 inches from the GFS (Figure 5).

Figure 1: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Thursday noon.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Saturday noon.
Figure 4: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Monday noon.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.
SHARE
Previous articleCapitol Letters: A Change of Climate
Next articleA Community Conversation on Reducing the Risk of Gun Violence
John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

Leave a Reply