Forecast Discussion:

Things are on track. A ridge sits overhead and down slope flow/winds will keep us warm in the 50’s F. The next system is slowly approaching from the west (Figure 1). Figure 2 shows we stay in the 50’s F through Friday (Figure 2).

The longer range forecast:

We have a very small chance of snow later Thursday into Friday AM, then again Saturday AM. The GFS (Figure 3) lays down a coating to maybe an inch of snow around town… you may get a luck dusting. The NAM limits the light snow to the western side of Longmont (Figure 4).

Our big snow storm next week, that faded to nearly nothing yesterday, is back with 1-3 or 2-4 inches of snow Sunday night into Wednesday morning (Figure 2). We can say that Saturday on will be cold, with more confidence. letting the GFS make things up for 10 days, it gives us 1-2 inches of snow over that long stretch of time. More to come! Have a nice Valentines Day!

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday PM. From NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Friday noon.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snow map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado, through Friday PM.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.
SHARE
Previous articleLive Video: Longmont City Council Regular Meeting 2-12-2019
Next articleRamey Homestead Black Walnut Woodworking Opportunity
John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

Leave a Reply