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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 7, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Yes we got the top amount of snow I forecasted... and it lasted longer than even the NWS guessed.  Figure 1 shows we approached or surpassed 1 inch of snow across most of the town.  With temperatures remaining in the upper 20'sF, the roads were icy/snowy for quite a while.

The the jet stream is far to the south (shown a few times this last week in these discussions) and a very juicy storm is rolling to the south and east of us along the Mexico border (Figure 2). We have a front in place and southwest winds moving in (looking like a warm front) but not much in precipitation.  We warm up for a few days now.

Figure 1: The CoCoRaHS water reports by Thursday 7am.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Friday night. From NCEP.

The longer range forecast:

We warm almost to the 50'sF over the next 6 days before another front brings in colder air and a chance of snow (Figure 3).  Looking out 6 days (next Wednesday), the western and higher mountains get snow, but we don't see anything quite make it to Longmont (Figure 4).  With the next front coming in (circled  in blue) we do get a chance of snow around here.  Figure 5 gives us 1-2" day 6 and 7 from now (Wed - Fri AM).  It's not much to look forward to, but I'll take it.

Figure 3: 10 day meteogram from weather5280.com for DIA.

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 6 days.

Figure 5: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.

Current Weather

Mostly sunny

Mostly sunny

56°F

UV Index
5 Moderate
Pressure
29.93 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
24 °F
Humidity
29%
Wind
ESE 2.8 mph
Gust
6.3 mph
Wind Chill
56 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
12 PM
55°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
57°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
62°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
45°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

64 °F

More sun than clouds


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

54 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

32 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

48 °F

Cloudy and chilly with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data