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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 6, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

(I'll post this early since the snow will move in tonight... Wednesday).

The storm in the west is digging down into Arizona and Mexico with some precipitation extending up into the Western slopes of Colorado and Longmont (Figure 1). This is being driven by this big trough (red line to the southwest of Colorado) headed past us (Figure 2).

Figure 3 is the HRRR from Wednesday PM to Thursday early morning. We do seem to get a coating to 1/2 inch! Figure 4 is the GFS and it has snow very close to us.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday night. From NCEP.

Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Thursday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.

Figure 3: The forecast accumulated snow map from the HRRR and weather5280.com for Colorado for the next 15 hours through 4 am . Longmont is the pink dot, as always.

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 2+ days.

The longer range forecast:

Like yesterday, we get a couple of fronts next week, but no real heat ups or cold air is on the way. And no snow. Sorry.

Current Weather

Rain

Rain

49°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.72 Rising
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
44 °F
Humidity
83%
Wind
NE 4.6 mph
Gust
8.2 mph
Wind Chill
47 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 PM
56°F
Thunderstorms
Today
9 PM
53°F
Thunderstorms
Today
10 PM
50°F
Thunderstorms
Today
11 PM
48°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
4 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
6 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
7 AM
44°F
Rain

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

69 °F

Variable cloudiness with a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

41 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

44 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data