Forecast Discussion:

(I’ll post this early since the snow will move in tonight… Wednesday).

The storm in the west is digging down into Arizona and Mexico with some precipitation extending up into the Western slopes of Colorado and Longmont (Figure 1). This is being driven by this big trough (red line to the southwest of Colorado) headed past us (Figure 2).

Figure 3 is the HRRR from Wednesday PM to Thursday early morning. We do seem to get a coating to 1/2 inch! Figure 4 is the GFS and it has snow very close to us.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Thursday night. From NCEP.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Thursday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: The forecast accumulated snow map from the HRRR and for Colorado for the next 15 hours through 4 am . Longmont is the pink dot, as always.
Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and for Colorado, through the next 2+ days.

The longer range forecast:

Like yesterday, we get a couple of fronts next week, but no real heat ups or cold air is on the way. And no snow. Sorry.

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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.


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