Forecast Discussion:

I’m working on getting the inside decorations up now, so I’ll use this quiet weather period to go ‘lite’ on the posting. Eventually we’ll have so much weather I won’t be able to fit it all here. Just not this week.

The weather map, minus a weak lee trough (black dashed line in Colorado), is still quiet.  The next system is occluding (purple front) out on the West coast. It next heads past us to the south (Figure 1) over the next 48 hours.

The snowfall over the next 48 hours really really meager across Colorado (Figure 2). We may see a dusting to a coating again tonight through Thursday AM.

Figure 1: The current surface map from Tuesday PM and the Weather Channel.
Figure 2: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Thursday afternoon. Longmont is the pink dot, as always.

Forecast Discussion:

We have the current cold front pass mid-afternoon today followed by about 12 hours of elevated light snow chances. This does put us at near freezing for a day and a half. The next warm up continues until a double (dry, it seems) cold front hit comes Tuesday and Wednesday next week (Figure 3).

Even over the next 10 days (Figure 4) Longmont does not expect (from the GFS) to see any more snow than it gets over the next day or so. The mountains will see more snow with the systems next week at least. That is important for long term water supplies and ski resort happiness. Crazy way to run a late-Fall.

Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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