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Forecast Discussion:
Dry, and warm, weather dominates the entire western U.S. while record rainfall hits the east (that's the way it happens sometimes - Figure 1). We remain above normal in temperature and dry (almost up to 60F most days and above 60F at the end of the week!! Figure 2) for days and days. Blobs of moisture will pass now and then creating cloudy skies, but there isn't much to note in the short term.
The longer range forecast and Christmas snow forecast:
Our chances of rain or snow, from weatherunderground, are down around 3-5% next weekend (Figure 2). Storm systems will be impacting the state, even if they don't do anything around Longmont. Figure 3 shows Estes park getting about an inch of snow Wednesday and some snow Saturday through Christmas Day. You don't have to drive far to see snow.
Figure 4, the ensemble runs from the GFS does show some runs giving Denver precipitation as temperatures start to cool after the 22nd. The GFS (Figure 5) has the mountains getting up to 10 inches of snow over the next 10 days... even Boulder might get a coating to an inch in this time period.
The big picture climatology of a White Christmas is given by NOAA in Figure 6. We have a pretty good chance, compared to much of the country, normally. The weather channel puts us on the edge of a 'possible' category for a White Christmas - Figure 7 - this year. It's not likely, but it is not off the table either. Write a note to Santa real quick...
