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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 13, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

The front has swept past Longmont and skies are dark. (I'll post this early, since the storm is underway). The current radar image sows western slope snows have begun (Figure 1).

Figure 2 by Wednesday evening, the front is far to the south with western slope snows almost making it down to Lyons! By Thursday a.m. (Figure 3) the front is far far to the south, but mountain snows and 'plains' snows are falling in just about every direction but not here in town. A dusting IS possible.

Figure 4 is a model used by astronomers that predicts snow around 11 p.m. Wednesday.   The HRRR model, before 1 a.m. Thursday, puts 1-4 inches of snow down in the mountains, with snow almost making it down to Boulder, but not quite. Figure 6, the GFS, has snow south of Denver and up in the mountains from this storm, but nothing right in our town.  My dusting to a coating of snow is still possible.

Figure 1: Radar image from just before noon on Wednesday from weatherunderground.com

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Wednesday night. From NCEP.

Figure 3: The forecast surface map for Thursday a.m. From NCEP.

Figure 4: the next couple of days of astronomical forecasting with precipitation type (11pm snow flurries). From 7! Timer.

Figure 5: The forecast accumulated snow map from the HRRR and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 15 hours.

Figure 6: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 48 hours.

The longer range forecast:

We warm right up to the 50's F and winds die down after Thursday. Very quiet weather will be the rule through Dec 22nd. That is VERY close to Christmas.

Current Weather

Mostly clear

Mostly clear

56°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.76 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
24 °F
Humidity
29%
Wind
W 4.3 mph
Gust
10.9 mph
Wind Chill
56 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 PM
48°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 PM
45°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
12 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
1 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
2 AM
39°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
3 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
4 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
5 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
6 AM
34°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
7 AM
35°F
Intermittent clouds
Tomorrow
8 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

65 °F

Partly sunny


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy with a shower


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

53 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data