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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 12, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

The most exciting weather of the next 10 days happens over the next 24 hours (unless you liked the down-slope gusts on Tuesday). Go out and enjoy our cold front! By this evening, the cold front has swept past us and is already down into New Mexico and parts unknown (Figure 1). According to NCEP, up-slope flow will be strong enough early Thursday AM to give us some sleet/snow mix (Figure 2).

Weatherunderground shows the cold front passing Longmont around 1 PM with a dip in the pressure field and a steady temperature decline after that time (Figure 3). BUT they have no precipitation at all, just a bunch of north wind is howling by, according to that source.

Figure 4 is the GFS and it has a coating to an inch of snow for Boulder, but no snow to a coating of snow possible for Longmont. Figure 5, the NAM, doesn't paint any snow in NE Boulder county either.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday night. From NCEP.

Figure 2: The forecast surface map for Thursday AM. From NCEP.

Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days forecast for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Figure 4: The forecast accumulated snow map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.

Figure 5: The forecast accumulated snow map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for the southern plains, through the next 2.5 days.

The longer range forecast:

Back to Figure 3- you'll see that day time temperatures rapidly return to mid to upper 50's F with lows at or above freezing off to the end of Fall 12/20. Christmas is almost in sight on this model and there are no big snow storms or cold air expected. WeatherBell is still calling for a big cold spell just before Christmas - a well placed low or front could 'still' give us snow. All hope is not yet lost. More later!

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

47°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
29.96 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
26 °F
Humidity
43%
Wind
N 1.7 mph
Gust
3.9 mph
Wind Chill
47 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 AM
43°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
47°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
51°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
55°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
4 PM
64°F
Partly sunny
Today
5 PM
63°F
Partly sunny
Today
6 PM
61°F
Partly sunny
Today
7 PM
58°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

64 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

54 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

32 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

48 °F

Cloudy and chilly with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data