Thur 8/29 Update: Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – August 27-29, 2019

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Est. Reading Time: 2 minutes
Figure 3 update: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Thursday for Friday.

In Brief:

We remain cool and dry Tuesday, we get hot but dry Wednesday/Thursday. Moisture returns and cools us a bit Friday/Saturday when afternoon storms return, then we are hot and dry later in the weekend. It looks like Fall is trying to start its engine.

11am Update Thur 8/29:

The return of moisture will be slow after the frontal passage (around 3-4pm today, still). With dry air in place and down slope heating, we should sneak up to the lower 90’sF today before that front cools things just a bit. The SPC has removed our chance of convection today (Figure 2 update). No rain for you!

We do have a marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow (Friday – Figure 3 update). The main risk looks to be large hail in a few storms near I-25.

Figure 2 update: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Thursday for Thursday.
Figure 3 update: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Thursday for Friday.

End 11am Update Thur 8/29.

3pm Update Wed 8/28:

The forecast is on track with dry hot weather continuing Wednesday. We start out warm on Thursday, but a cold front will pass around 3-4pm keeping us from the 90’sF. There won’t be severe weather, but there is a chance of storms (garden variety – Figure 1 update) returning this afternoon/evening. We cool about 10 degrees over Tuesday/Wednesday.

Figure 1 update: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Wednesday for Thursday.

End 3pm Update.

Forecast Discussion:

A cool front cut off the heat on Monday. This comfortable dryness will continue today (Tuesday). The dry air with little moisture anywhere near the state is visible in oranges and reds on Figure 1. We won’t see any rain in the mountains or nearby plains today or Wednesday.

The Longer Range Forecast:

The SPC convection map is blank for northern Colorado over the next 3 days (day 3 is shown in Figure 2). The GFS 5 day precipitation map is equally unimpressive (Figure 3).

I put blocks around the temperatures with blue being quite a bit below average, red being quite a bit above average, and orange being close to average high temperatures (Figure 4). The only time we are swinging to extremes will be Friday/Saturday when some tropical moisture returns with afternoon storms again.

Looking WAY out into the future, the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) predictions from many models into next Spring calls for near neutral to slightly El Nino skewed Pacific ocean conditions. This means Colorado will experience fairly normal seasonal weather. We’ll watch the details as the months pass!

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image (browns/reds are dry air, whites and light grey is moist air, purple/blue is ice and high cloud tops). From the the Weather Channel from Monday evening.
Figure 2: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Monday for Wednesday.
Figure 3 the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, for the next 5 days.
Figure 4: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 5: The ENSO indices forecast from various models through March/April/May next year (MAM). From the IRI/CPC and NWS.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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