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In Brief:
We remain cool and dry Tuesday, we get hot but dry Wednesday/Thursday. Moisture returns and cools us a bit Friday/Saturday when afternoon storms return, then we are hot and dry later in the weekend. It looks like Fall is trying to start its engine.
11am Update Thur 8/29:
The return of moisture will be slow after the frontal passage (around 3-4pm today, still). With dry air in place and down slope heating, we should sneak up to the lower 90'sF today before that front cools things just a bit. The SPC has removed our chance of convection today (Figure 2 update). No rain for you!
We do have a marginal risk of severe weather tomorrow (Friday - Figure 3 update). The main risk looks to be large hail in a few storms near I-25.
End 11am Update Thur 8/29.
3pm Update Wed 8/28:
The forecast is on track with dry hot weather continuing Wednesday. We start out warm on Thursday, but a cold front will pass around 3-4pm keeping us from the 90'sF. There won't be severe weather, but there is a chance of storms (garden variety - Figure 1 update) returning this afternoon/evening. We cool about 10 degrees over Tuesday/Wednesday.
End 3pm Update.
Forecast Discussion:
A cool front cut off the heat on Monday. This comfortable dryness will continue today (Tuesday). The dry air with little moisture anywhere near the state is visible in oranges and reds on Figure 1. We won't see any rain in the mountains or nearby plains today or Wednesday.
The Longer Range Forecast:
The SPC convection map is blank for northern Colorado over the next 3 days (day 3 is shown in Figure 2). The GFS 5 day precipitation map is equally unimpressive (Figure 3).
I put blocks around the temperatures with blue being quite a bit below average, red being quite a bit above average, and orange being close to average high temperatures (Figure 4). The only time we are swinging to extremes will be Friday/Saturday when some tropical moisture returns with afternoon storms again.
Looking WAY out into the future, the ENSO (El Nino Southern Oscillation) predictions from many models into next Spring calls for near neutral to slightly El Nino skewed Pacific ocean conditions. This means Colorado will experience fairly normal seasonal weather. We'll watch the details as the months pass!
