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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – August 22, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

In Brief:

We have two more days of summer thunderstorms with a Marginal Risk painted for the area Thursday PM. The weekend will be hot and dry - getting close to 100F again. Next week a stout cold front will invade Tuesday-ish and we may only see highs in the 70'sF mid to late week. Woohoo!

Forecast Discussion:

Figure 1 shows some moisture up the spine of the Rockies and Pacific moisture coming in from the west with surface moisture being pushed back to the west from the big thunderstorm complex that drifted to the southeast through the Midwest last night. There is still moisture around Thursday and with the short wave fairly close to the state to the west (Figure 2) - we'll see more storms.

The SPC has painted us with a Marginal Risk again Thursday with hail and high winds being most likely (Figure 3). (It mostly skipped Longmont on Wednesday -but some Coloradans got hit.)

The Longer Range Forecast:

Figure 4 shows that serious heat and bone dry conditions will dominate the state this weekend. A deep trough is shaping up in the models that will blast the center of the nation with a lot of cold air. We "may" only see lower 70'sF after mid-week (not reflected in the weatherunderground model shown). Here's to hoping!

Figure 1: the water vapor satellite image (browns/reds are dry air, whites and light grey is moist air, purple/blue is ice and high cloud tops). From the the Weather Channel from Wednesday evening.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Thursday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: The severe storm weather forecast for the U.S. from the Storm Predication Center in Norman, OK. Made Wednesday for Thursday.
Figure 4: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

37°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.13 Falling
Visibility
12 miles
Dewpoint
26 °F
Humidity
64%
Wind
W 2.7 mph
Gust
3.8 mph
Wind Chill
35 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
3 AM
33°F
Clear
Today
4 AM
32°F
Clear
Today
5 AM
31°F
Clear
Today
6 AM
30°F
Mostly clear
Today
7 AM
29°F
Clear
Today
8 AM
33°F
Sunny
Today
9 AM
39°F
Sunny
Today
10 AM
47°F
Sunny
Today
11 AM
53°F
Sunny
Today
12 PM
58°F
Sunny
Today
1 PM
62°F
Sunny
Today
2 PM
63°F
Sunny

7 Day Forecast

Sunny

Monday

60 °F

Milder with sunshine; the start of a stretch of dry and mild weather


Clear

Monday Night

29 °F

Clear


Sunny

Tuesday

66 °F

Sunshine


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

31 °F

Mainly clear


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

63 °F

Mostly sunny and pleasant


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

31 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

66 °F

Sun and areas of high clouds and pleasant; breezy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

31 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

61 °F

Becoming cloudy with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Friday Night

32 °F

Mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
7:06 AM
Sunset
7:11 PM

Based on AccuWeather data