In Brief:

Moisture diminishes a bit as a strong ridge dominates the weather through Tuesday AM. We will see upper 90’sF until moisture returns Tuesday PM and temperatures drop about 10F.

Forecast Discussion:

The wind flow across the nation is bringing us air flow and moisture from the west/Pacific (Figure 1). With a ridge growing over the southern U.S. and Colorado (Figure 3) – we dry out and get quite hot Sunday-Tuesday (Figure 2).

The Longer Range Forecast:

In the more distant future, the ridge will weaken, a trough takes a bite out of it by Tuesday so we see moisture return – storm chances return as well for a bit. It is going to get quiet after the Saturday clouds, winds, and showers move on.

Figure 1: Wind flow/streamline map for Sunday from the weather channel.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Monday AM. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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