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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – April 8, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast discussion:

Another sprinkle moved through on Saturday, but it wasn't much. Now the real first warm-up of the year gets underway. From Sunday afternoon, high pressure is sitting in place over our state (Figure 1). By Monday morning, a strong ridge is moving in from the west (Figure 2). By Tuesday afternoon we could be almost 25°F above normal (Figure 3). Tuesday's high will probably break 80°F for the first time in forever.

The longer range forecast:

Still looking at Figure 4, the next day, Wednesday, a front moves in during the morning and we have about 18 hours of a really good chance of rain. Ground temperatures will be high and we will just be cooling to freezing at the end of the main precipitation event - so snow, if it occurs, it won't stick around much.

This storm system is caused by a strong short wave moving in with a closed-off low over Utah Wednesday AM (Figure 5). Our 10 day snow totals for the state look like a foot in the higher mountains, but maybe a trace/coating down around Longmont (Figure 6). For rainfall, weatherunderground.com gives us about 1/4th of an inch (Figure 4) while the GFS gives us 1/2 to 3/4th of an inch. Sorry if you were hoping for snow, but it is leaving the forecast (though there is still a lot of disagreement among the models for what happens Thursday on - so I'm not focusing on that longer long range forecast yet).

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Sunday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Monday morning next week. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 3: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Tuesday PM.
Figure 4: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 5: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday morning next week. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next 10 days.
Figure 7: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next 10 days.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

36°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.83 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
29 °F
Humidity
76%
Wind
NNE 1.9 mph
Gust
3.8 mph
Wind Chill
37 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
8 AM
39°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
9 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
49°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
52°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
52°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
50°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
47°F
Mostly cloudy w/ showers
Today
7 PM
44°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

52 °F

Cooler with sun and clouds; a couple of showers late this afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

34 °F

A couple of showers this evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Periods of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

61 °F

Mostly sunny and milder


Clear

Tuesday Night

29 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:48 AM
Sunset
7:23 PM

Based on AccuWeather data