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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – April 4, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Since showers are moving in on us (the 'storm' is underway -Figure 1) - I'll post early today. The chance of showers peak about when this post goes up - from 4-7pm. Sprinkles will fade out by midnight (Figure 2). Note, that funny R with an arrow and dot mean thunderstorm with light rain, in meteorology speak. The HRRR model (Figure 3) has spotty showers around Wednesday PM. It happens to miss Longmont in this run. Most areas that do get water get a trace to 1/4th inch.

The longer range forecast:

There is another disturbance in the flow moving through Saturday - it isn't much at this point (Figure 2). The next big change in the weather pattern moves in Tuesday next week (also Figure 2).

The upper air pattern on Tuesday shows a short wave passing over the state and a big trough digging into the western U.S. (Figure 4). This will bring a cooler and wetter period for mid-next week on. Rainfall totals over the next 10 days look to remain under 1/2 inch for Longmont (Figure 5) and more snow falls in the mountains (up to a foot in places -Figure 6). We'll keep an eye on it all as the week passes!

Figure1: The current radar from weatherunderground.com at 3pm MDT.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: The HRRR model rainfall output for the next 15 hours beginning midday Wednesday from weather5280.com
Figure 4: The 500mb forecast upper air analysis for Wednesday morning next week. Pink dot is Longmont. Red lines are troughs, blue lines are ridges.
Figure 5 : the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.
Figure 6 : the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through the next 10 days.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

48°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.77 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
27 °F
Humidity
44%
Wind
SE 2.8 mph
Gust
6 mph
Wind Chill
47 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Today
2 AM
43°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 AM
40°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 AM
34°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
50°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

65 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

A shower in spots late this evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

53 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data