The forecast discussion:

We have entered a very warm and quiet period, so I’ll save words here. The showers that came through Longmont just slightly wetted the ground. Figure 1 shows a few trace amounts reported. Oh well.

With moisture around and some little upper-level ripples passing over the state, we have a slight chance of a thunderstorm or two (quite weak) Friday afternoon/evening and Saturday afternoon/evening (a bit of a better chance).

The longer range forecast:

We climb into the 70’s F for the weekend and start of the week before our next big change in the weather. Tuesday night, showers return and it cools enough that snow may return some evenings into next weekend. More on that later!

Figure 1: total new rainfall totals for Wednesday/Thursday up to 7am for Boulder county from CoCoRaHS.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Monday noon.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Monday noon.


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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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