Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – April 24, 2019

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Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday PM from NCEP.

In Brief:

We have a stretch of 5 more days of mild weather with only a small chance of a thundershower most afternoons. A cool down with some rain showers return Monday/Tuesday, then we warm up but have continued shower chances next week.

Forecast Discussion:

There aren’t any organized storms around the state, but there is a weak lee trough (yellow line) just east of the mountains (Figure 1). There will be some moisture around and weak low level convergence along the Front Range. With day time heating- small thundershowers may pop up (Figure 2) and drift to the southeast on northwest flow aloft (not shown). Temperatures are very nice in the lower to middle 70’s F this week.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Over the next 5 days, there is a chance of a little bit of rain almost anywhere across the state (Figure 3). There are indications of cooler weather and rain beginning Sunday night (Figure 2) with rainfall over the next 10 days over 1.5″ (Figure 4). Remember, we have seen the GFS get really excited many days out and then fade out on us. I wouldn’t count on big rains yet.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Wednesday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 5 days.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado,over the next 10 days.


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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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