In Brief:

After morning mist and clouds, we warm up for almost a week with only a small chance of an afternoon shower now and then. Next week may see a cool down and another rain event.

Forecast Discussion:

It was cloudy, misty, and foggy in places Monday PM- which will continue through Tuesday AM before dry air moves in from the north shoving the precipitation down to the south. (Figure 1 and Figure 2). There ARE showers nearby in the foothills but not much measurable overnight Monday/Tuesday close to town.

Once the clouds break, mid-morning, we warm to 70°F.

The Longer Range Forecast

By Saturday (Figure 4 and Figure 2) we are almost 20°F above normal and hovering around 80°F again. The next shot of cool air arrives Monday next week to drop us to about 5°F below normal (but still above freezing over the next 10 days – Figure 5). Rain chances return then too. More later! Enjoy some more spring.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Tuesday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: the HRRR precipitation prediction up to 6 am Tuesday from weather5280.com
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 4: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Saturday PM.
Figure 5: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Monday noon.


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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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