The weather in brief:
I’ve had a request to make these discussions a big shorter – but sometimes I have a lot to say. So I’m going to try a “weather in brief” section up front, then go into more details below in the forecast discussion. If you want it quickly, it’ll be up here. If you want all the messy model stuff, it’ll be below. Tell me how this works for you in the comments section!
In brief, the storm is shaping up to have less moisture and be stronger up in Wyoming – so much less rain is expected from 2pm Sunday to Tuesday. Maybe only 1/4 th inch. We cool to just a bit below normal for a couple days then warm up again all week.
The Sunrise Forecast for Easteris now looking as:
6:00am, Partly cloudy skies 50F with no rain. Cloud cover at 40%. Winds from the West or Northwest at 3mph. Pretty nice!
The storm has changed its characteristics over the last couple of days. The may dynamical lift of the system will remain north of our area and there is less moisture expected in the atmosphere (maybe only 0.6 inch of precipitatable water). Rather than an inch or more of water, we may only get a few tenths according to some models.
For Sunday afternoon, there is a front draped across the state with rain near and north of the front (Figure 1). The graphical display at weatherunderground.com is broken but their tabulated data shows rain chances holding off until around 2pm, and much more minimal than we’ve been watching this week (I’m sad – Figure 2).
The GFS gives almost NO rain over the next 3 days (Figure 3). The NAM only gives us about 1/3rd inch of rain (Figure 4). Snowfall over the next 3 days is a mere shadow of what we saw just a day ago in the models – up in the mountains and foothills (Figure 5).
The longer range forecast:
We drop to the 50’s briefly Monday (but remain above freezing at night) – then warm to the 70’s and 80’s (by the end of the week). Things stay dry the rest of the week (Figure 6). Happy Easter all!