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Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – April 21, 2019

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

The weather in brief:

I've had a request to make these discussions a big shorter - but sometimes I have a lot to say. So I'm going to try a "weather in brief" section up front, then go into more details below in the forecast discussion. If you want it quickly, it'll be up here. If you want all the messy model stuff, it'll be below. Tell me how this works for you in the comments section!

In brief, the storm is shaping up to have less moisture and be stronger up in Wyoming - so much less rain is expected from 2pm Sunday to Tuesday. Maybe only 1/4 th inch. We cool to just a bit below normal for a couple days then warm up again all week.

Forecast Discussion:

The Sunrise Forecast for Easteris now looking as:

6:00am, Partly cloudy skies 50F with no rain. Cloud cover at 40%. Winds from the West or Northwest at 3mph. Pretty nice!

The storm has changed its characteristics over the last couple of days. The may dynamical lift of the system will remain north of our area and there is less moisture expected in the atmosphere (maybe only 0.6 inch of precipitatable water). Rather than an inch or more of water, we may only get a few tenths according to some models.

For Sunday afternoon, there is a front draped across the state with rain near and north of the front (Figure 1). The graphical display at weatherunderground.com is broken but their tabulated data shows rain chances holding off until around 2pm, and much more minimal than we've been watching this week (I'm sad - Figure 2).

The GFS gives almost NO rain over the next 3 days (Figure 3). The NAM only gives us about 1/3rd inch of rain (Figure 4). Snowfall over the next 3 days is a mere shadow of what we saw just a day ago in the models - up in the mountains and foothills (Figure 5).

The longer range forecast:

We drop to the 50's briefly Monday (but remain above freezing at night) - then warm to the 70's and 80's (by the end of the week). Things stay dry the rest of the week (Figure 6). Happy Easter all!


Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Sunday PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: the tabulated forecast for the next day for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Tuesday night.
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com for Colorado and areas east and south, through the next 3 days.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, through Tuesday night.
Figure 6: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com


Current Weather

Mostly clear

Mostly clear

33°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.99 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
23 °F
Humidity
67%
Wind
WNW 2.2 mph
Gust
4.7 mph
Wind Chill
33 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
4 AM
30°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 AM
28°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 AM
26°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
7 AM
29°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
8 AM
36°F
Partly sunny
Today
9 AM
42°F
Partly sunny
Today
10 AM
48°F
Partly sunny
Today
11 AM
53°F
Partly sunny
Today
12 PM
57°F
Partly sunny
Today
1 PM
60°F
Partly sunny
Today
2 PM
62°F
Partly sunny
Today
3 PM
63°F
Partly sunny

7 Day Forecast

Mostly sunny

Wednesday

54 °F

Sunny to partly cloudy and warmer


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

26 °F

Increasing cloudiness


Partly sunny

Thursday

64 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

35 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

54 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late in the afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

33 °F

A couple of showers in the evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Times of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

36 °F

Becoming cloudy with a shower in spots late


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:51 AM
Sunset
7:21 PM

Based on AccuWeather data