Today (Monday) is mostly cloudy, cool, with showers at time. We warm slowly with dry weather to the end of the week when we reach 80F again.
All the models and the NWS forecast are trending toward only a sprinkle or two today under cool stable cloudy skies with a bit of fog possible. The GEM model is the only one that still brings in about 1/10th of an inch. It is an outlier – we won’t see much more water from this system. I received just over 2/10th of an inch of water here in NE Longmont.
End 8am Update.
The weather situation over the next 24 hours is fairly complex. There is cool air in place (diminishing shower chances), some cool air aloft (but not much – aiding in showers a little bit), some up slope flow (aiding in showers), and a front draped nearby (aiding in showers). (Figure 1)
The models are quite confused as well. The weatherudnerground.com model have showers possible most of the day Monday – but it doesn’t give us much precipitation (an under-done 0.01″ – Figure 2).
The HRRR, in contrast- just through 8am – gives us about 0.10″ (Figure 3).
The old reliable GFS, for the next 48 hours – has us in a dry (Figure 4) hole as it did 24 hours ago- but we’ve had almost a quarter inch in the thunderstorms that came through Sunday afternoon (we got our egg hunt done just in time!)
To see how different the models are, the GEM has over 1/2 inch more fall over the next 2 days (Figure 5) while the NAM (Figure 6) gives us about 0.10″.
As for snow – there is just a bit in the higher mountains and- maybe- a coating in Boulder and Lyons over the next day (Figure 7).
The Longer Range Forecast:
Figure 2 – again, takes us back to 70F on Tuesday and warms us to 80F by Friday. There are only tiny chances of afternoon showers now and then – mainly Thursday. There is another storm to watch at the end of the weekend (similar to our set up right now!).