9:30am Update:

The cool front should pass Longmont around 5pm today. There is a general chance of thunderstorms (non-severe) for almost all of Colorado today (Figure 1 update). Small hail and gusty winds are possible today and tonight. A few cells may approach minimal severe levels. Aside from a thunderstorm cell or two, there are fairly low chances of rain or snow over the next 48 hours. It will be cool and moist.

Figure 1 Update: The SPC (Storm Prediction Center) Day 1 convective forecast made Tuesday for Tuesday.

End 9:30am update.

Forecast Discussion:

We’re still pulling into Spring and are alternating between fairly warm and somewhat chilly (Figure 1). I circled the two minor cool downs over the next 10 days in blue and the two rain periods (with overnight/AM snow?) in green. We hover around 70° F Monday and Tuesday (earlier in the day). Later Tuesday, a front pushed down that may trigger a few garden-variety thundershowers before rain chances most of the day Wednesday.

The Longer Range Forecast:

Temperatures Wednesday AM are still a bit above normal (Figure 2) then we drop to about normal Thursday midday (Figure 3). By Friday PM, we are back to about 15° F above normal (Figure 4).

Over the next 4 days, Longmont may received about 1/10th to 1/4th inch of water (Figure 5) with snow at least down to Boulder, western Denver, the Palmer Divide (Figure 6). We might see a coating of night time snow, of course. Details later, but there isn’t too much excitement in store this week.

Figure 1: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 2: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Wednesday AM.
Figure 3: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Thursday AM.
Figure 4: The forecast temperature departure from normal map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, Friday PM.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next almost 4 days.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next almost 4 days.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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