Forecast Discussion:

I’ll post early since the showers are ongoing this afternoon, and will continue through the night Friday into Saturday and on into the afternoon. I’m still dealing with spotty internets in St. Louis where an inch of rain is scheduled for tomorrow.

This weekend’s storm system is digging south of the state, basically throwing some moisture around the top of the Low up-slope into the Front Range (Figure 1). Our daytime rain, nighttime snow showers will continue through 8pm Saturday (Figure 2).

Through 7am, the HRRR actually gives us 1/2 inch to 1 inch of snow in places (Figure 3). The GFS (a less precise resolution) puts minimal snow around the area but not in town (Figure 4). For precipitation (water content) it is minimal as well (Figure 5).

The longer range forecast:

Our next low moves in Tuesday through Thursday bringing more rain (Figure 2). At least we return to the upper 60’sF and mid 70’sF after this system moves off later Saturday night.

Figure 1: The forecast surface map for Fridaay PM from NCEP.
Figure 2: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 3: the HRRR snowfall prediction up to 7am Saturday from weather5280.com
Figure 4: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next 2 days.
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation/water content map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next 2 days.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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