Forecast Discussion:

We received the snow. My personal forecast was for 1-4 inches (see NextDoor) in Longmont and we saw about 3-4 inches (Figure 2). This equate to almost 2/3rds of an inch of water (Figure 1). More drought busting goodness.

For Friday afternoon, the NEXT system is already moving in bringing snow to the mountains and afternoon rain showers that will turn to snow at night. This is not at all as vigorous as the last two storms, it is just a normal spring system is coming through (Figure 3). Rain chances taper off late morning Saturday.

It looks like this next system will deliver .05 to .25 inch of water (Figure 4) and a coating to 1 inch of snow (Figure 5).

The longer range forecast:

We briefly visit 70F on Sunday before the Next Next system comes in cooling us down (but not really to freezing). We see rain showers Tuesday becoming an unsettled period of occasional showers through Thursday. More on that later (Figure 4)!

Figure 1: total new precipitation totals for Wednesday/Thursday up to 7am for Boulder county from CoCoRaHS.
Figure 2: total new snow totals for Wednesday/Thursday up to 7am for Boulder county from CoCoRaHS.
Figure 3: The forecast surface map for Fridaay PM from NCEP.
Figure 4: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com
Figure 5: the forecast accumulated precipitation map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next 3 days.
Figure 6: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next 3 days.


SHARE
Previous articleELPASO: Engaged Latino Parents Advancing Student Outcomes
Next articleNEW DATE: South Clover Basin Park Meeting #3: Draft Master Plan presentation and comments
John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

Leave a Reply