Forecast Discussion:

This is a part 2 post to the very active April 10th discussion. The winter storm is just getting underway and warnings (winter storm and blizzard) are just now in effect as this posts. Be safe out there! I’m in St. Louis (missing all the fun) and have no internet connection after my evening meetings. (I know!)

The next 15 hours after noon Wednesday from the HRRR (Figure 1) have about an inch over Longmont with heavier amounts east and west of us.

The GFS, over the next 2 days, ends up giving Longmont 3-4 inches of snow. Add wind and you have a travel mess shaping up Wednesday night into Thursday AM (Figure 2). In Figure 3, this storm largely wraps up in the early morning hours Thursday with some snow flurry chances later in the day.

The longer range forecast:

A big deep south low forms on the heals of this storm and moves up to dump rain on me in St. Louis, then a third storm rolls out of the U.S. Northwest to bring some rain/snow chances back (Figure 3) Friday night into Saturday AM. More on that AFTER the Wed/Thur storm actually wraps up.

Figure 1: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the HRRR and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next 15 hours.
Figure 2: the forecast accumulated snowfall map from the GFS and weather5280.com for Colorado, over the next 2 days.
Figure 3: the graphical forecast for the next 10 days for Longmont, CO from weatherunderground.com


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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.

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