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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – November 19, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

...and the quiet weather begins again.  The current surface map (Figure 1) has a big high pressure system sitting over western Colorado.  The large scale storminess is on the north west coast and east and northeast coast.

Figure 1: Current surface map Saturday PM with Infrared Satellite image background (cold clouds= yellow/orange, warm ground= blues and purples. )

The Longer Range forecast:

The weather maps changes little by Monday with storms up in the northeast and northwest again (Figure 2). High pressure dominates Colorado. On Thanksgiving day, the troughs have moved little and the unsettled weather (light green ovals Figure 3) is still in the same places - the northeast and northwest coasts.  How long can this pattern hold like this...? We'll see!

Thanksgiving Day forecast created Saturday:  High 68F  Low 43F with partly cloudy skies, light winds out of the west.  Still as ideal as a Thanksgiving day could be here! (And there is no poor weather expected on the travel days on either side of the holiday either.)

Figure 2: NCEP surface map analysis forecast for late Sunday/early Monday (Longmont = pink dot).

Figure 3: Upper air, 500mb forecast map from the GSF for Thanksgiving morning. Trough in red, ridges in blue and unsettled weather in green circles to the right of troughs).

Current Weather

Sunny

Sunny

49°F

UV Index
3 Moderate
Pressure
29.74 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
17 °F
Humidity
28%
Wind
W 4.3 mph
Gust
11.1 mph
Wind Chill
48 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 AM
53°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
56°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
57°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
59°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
59°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
60°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
59°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
59°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 PM
57°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 PM
56°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
53°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
50°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Intermittent clouds

Wednesday

60 °F

Breezy this morning; otherwise, cool with times of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy

Wednesday Night

40 °F

Increasing clouds


Partly sunny w/ showers

Thursday

53 °F

Times of clouds and sun with a couple of showers; cool


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

41 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

57 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

39 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Mostly sunny and warmer


Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Saturday Night

43 °F

Mostly cloudy with showers and thunderstorms late


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

64 °F

Mostly cloudy with a thunderstorm in spots in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

44 °F

A thunderstorm in the evening; otherwise, becoming clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:51 AM
Sunset
8:03 PM

Based on AccuWeather data