Skip to content

The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – January 16, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

I'll update this post later in the day Tuesday with actual snowfall amounts, but it looks like I received 1.5" of snow in NE Longmont.   We'll be a bit chilly today but warmer than Monday. The front is still sitting off to our west (Figure 1) but the core of the cold air is drifting east.

The upper level pattern this week will again be a large ridge to our west or overhead (the blue line in Figure 2). We should see 60'sF, or nearly that warm, by the end of the week.

Midday update: Longmont received just a bit over and under 1" from this last storm (following a glaze of freezing rain/ice).  See Figure 1a.

Figure 1a: CoCoRaHS snow total reports for Monday 1/15-Tuesday 1/16.

Figure 1: Surface analysis forecast map for Tuesday Midday from the NCEP.

Figure 2: The 500mb forecast upper level map for Tuesday midday from the GFS.

The longer range forecast:

Then our next storm comes in Saturday.  This pattern by then is almost the exact flip of the week ahead of it (Figure 3). A rather strong trough is moving in from the west and models are getting excited about snow (but we've seen THAT before!).

For fun, the GFS paints Longmont with 3-4" of snow by later Saturday (Figure 4).  I might invest in Bitcoin before putting money on this though.  <grin>  Enjoy the warm up in the meantime.

Figure 3: The 500mb forecast upper level map for Saturday midday from the GFS.

Figure 4: The total snowfall accumulation forecast from Monday PM to Saturday PM from weather5280.com

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

42°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.75 Falling
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
30 °F
Humidity
60%
Wind
N 2.2 mph
Gust
5.5 mph
Wind Chill
42 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
3 AM
40°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
6 AM
34°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
7 AM
36°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
49°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
52°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny

Thursday

65 °F

Partly sunny


Intermittent clouds

Thursday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

52 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late this afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

34 °F

A couple of showers this evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Periods of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:50 AM
Sunset
7:22 PM

Based on AccuWeather data