Forecast Discussion:

The front is sweeping down the Front Range this evening, Wednesday. We’ve had enough rainfall to wet the ground.  Hurray!

I’ll update briefly in the morning with the rainfall and snowfall reports.

Rainfall update in Figure 1A… Longmont got enough water to make a puddle… well most of us did!

Figure 1a: Rainfall reports for the 24 hours ending 1/11/2018 at 7am from CoCoRaHS.

The longer range forecast:

Temperatures go back above normal today and get even warmer beyond that for the next 10 days (Figure 1). There is a small storm passing on Friday and another prolonged unsettled period from Sunday PM to Tuesday… but neither are very wet or cold.

Just for fun – let’s look at the GFS and the next 10 days. Figure 2 has Longmont as the pink dot- and it only gives us 1-2″.   Someone needs to do some sort of mystical snow ritual for us!

Figure 1: The 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont. Notable storms and the temperature trend is here.
Figure 2: The GFS snowfall total forecast for the next 10 days. Longmont is the pink dot.
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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – www.strategies.org) . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.