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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 15 , 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

The winds blew and temperatures climbed Wednesday to 61F (by the time I wrote this). But here comes our cold front Thursday morning. Even though the front comes through this morning, it won't be until later tonight that flurries may fall around Colorado (Figure 1).

Figure 1: z7! model sky conditions and precipitation type (Snow pre-midnight Thursday.

The longer range forecast:

Tomorrow morning, there will be clouds, freezing temperatures and some amounts of snow falling out on the Plains (Figure 2). The mountains continue to have periods of snow almost every day.

The GFS paints Longmont in the 0.1 to 1 inch snow area by Saturday AM (though it ends Friday AM) [Figure 3].

Figure 4 is the WPC 50th percentile take, and it gives us about 1 inch of snow.

Figures 5 and 6 are the upper air pattern for Monday and Tuesday next week. A big trough dominates the West bringing in cold Arctic air and and increasing snow chances.  One model has 3-5" of snow for Longmont.  We'll see!

Figure 2: Forecast surface map for Friday AM from NCEP.

Figure 3: Total snowfall between Wed. PM and Saturday midday from the GFS and weather5280.com

Figure 4: Total snowfall between Wed. PM and Saturday midday from the WPC probabilistic 50% level and weather5280.com

Figure 5: The 500mb upper air forecast map for Monday from the GFS.

Figure 6: The 500mb upper air forecast map for Tuesday from the GFS.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

58°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.68 Rising
Visibility
7 miles
Dewpoint
39 °F
Humidity
49%
Wind
ENE 5.6 mph
Gust
11.1 mph
Wind Chill
58 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
7 PM
60°F
Thunderstorms
Today
8 PM
56°F
Thunderstorms
Today
9 PM
52°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
50°F
Thunderstorms
Today
11 PM
48°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
45°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
4 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
5 AM
44°F
Rain
Tomorrow
6 AM
44°F
Rain

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

69 °F

Variable cloudiness with a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

41 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

44 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data