Skip to content

The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 13 , 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast discussion:

We were spared freezing drizzle and freezing fog for most locations around Longmont on Monday. Instead a very very light snow fell most of the morning and early afternoon.  It was not enough to coat the ground in most locations.

Now the winds switch to a westerly direction and down slope warms us up quickly.  Today's high will be around 50F and Wednesday's temperature will be 60F with much stronger winds. Figure 1 shows those down slope winds at their maximum tomorrow.  Wind speeds may hover around 20mph.  Good thing it is not trash day (well, for my neighborhood).  The mountains will see continued snow.  Estes Park will get 2-4" + of snow Tuesday and Wednesday, for example.

Figure 1: The surface wind speeds midday Wednesday from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

The longer range forecast:

Looking off to Friday, small snow chances return on Thursday night in Longmont.  Snow totals look like a coating to an inch will build up in the Thursday 'storm.' We are on the edge of the no-snow zone (the GFS Figure 2).  The NAM looks similar (Figure 3).  Both put a foot or more snow in the higher elevations.  Bring it on!

What is interesting is the upper air pattern - for today (Figure 4) there is a trough over the western US and a ridge in the east.  Figure 5 is the pattern for next Monday - and it is very similar!  Having a trough to our west does mean more western Colorado and mountain snows.

Figure 2: The total snowfall between Monday PM and Thursday PM from the GFS and tropicaltidbits.com

Figure 3: The total snowfall between Monday PM and Thursday PM from the NAM and tropicaltidbits.com

Figure 4: The 500mb upper air forecast map for Tuesday morning from the GFS.

Figure 5: The 500mb upper air forecast map for Monday morning from the GFS.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

39°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.81 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
30 °F
Humidity
69%
Wind
N 2.2 mph
Gust
4.3 mph
Wind Chill
39 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
6 AM
38°F
Cloudy
Today
7 AM
37°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 AM
38°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 AM
41°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
44°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
47°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
12 PM
49°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
1 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
2 PM
52°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
3 PM
52°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
50°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Friday

52 °F

Cooler with times of clouds and sun; a couple of showers late this afternoon


Showers

Friday Night

34 °F

A couple of showers this evening; otherwise, cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Saturday

60 °F

Mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

34 °F

Partly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Sunday

62 °F

Periods of clouds and sun


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

33 °F

Becoming cloudy


Showers

Monday

52 °F

Cloudy and cooler with occasional rain; windy in the afternoon


Intermittent clouds

Monday Night

29 °F

Windy in the evening; partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

61 °F

Mostly sunny and milder


Clear

Tuesday Night

29 °F

Clear


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:48 AM
Sunset
7:23 PM

Based on AccuWeather data