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UPDATED: The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 11 , 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Sunday AM Update:

Figure 4 is the snowfall reports map from CoCoRaHS.  I drew some quick and dirty isohyets (line of equal precipitation - snowfall in this case). The 2 inch line cut Longmont in half.  Parts of Boulder reached 5 inches of snow (Figure 4).

Ft Collins received 1.5-2 inches of snow. Berthoud about 1.5 inches. Estes Park only 1-1.5 inches (in the reports submitted by midday; Figure 5). North Denver was also low in the 1-2 inch area while the southern side of the Metro picked up a much nicer 3-5 inches (Figure 6).

Figure 4: CoCoRaHS snowfall reports as of 7am today (Sunday). Blue lines are the 2, 3 and 4 inch contours based on this data. This is Boulder County.

Figure 5: CoCoRaHS snowfall reports as of 7am today (Sunday). This is Larimer County.

Figure 6: CoCoRaHS snowfall reports as of 7am today (Sunday). This is the Denver Metro.

Previous Forecast:

The current storm is underway, so this discussion will be brief.  I'll upload Sunday morning snowfall report maps as an update midday Sunday.

Figure 1 shows that the models are still expecting one more burst of snow in the early evening before skies clear Saturday night.  From my latest look at the radar - I don't see this band of snow upstream anywhere.  Figure 2 is the rapid update model HRRR and snow through Sunday morning. Longmont is on the edge of 0 to 1/2 inch more.  The main activity has shifted south.

Figure 1: 10 day graphical forecast for Longmont from weatherunderground.com - next three 'storms' circled in pink.

Figure 2: The total snowfall forecast from Saturday midday to Sunday early morning from the HRRR model and weather5280.com

The longer range forecast:

Figure 1 shows the weather 10 days out... there are low chances of precipitation Monday, but temperatures go quite low for a day.  We see chances of snow/rain Thursday into Friday and again Sunday into Monday. Only the most distant storm looks significant (and we know what usually happens- this year- to good looking model-storms). Figure 3 reflects that idea by giving us a total of about 8 inches of snow over the next 10 days.  I would be really surprised to see that much occur out of these next three unsettled periods. (Nice snow in the mountains though!).

Figure 3: The total snowfall forecast from Saturday midday to Feb 20th - 10 days out fom the GFS model and weather5280.com

Current Weather

Clear

Clear

41°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
30.15 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
27 °F
Humidity
59%
Wind
WSW 2.2 mph
Gust
3.2 mph
Wind Chill
41 °F

Hourly Forecast

Tomorrow
12 AM
37°F
Clear
Tomorrow
1 AM
36°F
Clear
Tomorrow
2 AM
35°F
Clear
Tomorrow
3 AM
33°F
Clear
Tomorrow
4 AM
32°F
Clear
Tomorrow
5 AM
31°F
Clear
Tomorrow
6 AM
30°F
Mostly clear
Tomorrow
7 AM
29°F
Clear
Tomorrow
8 AM
32°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
9 AM
39°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
10 AM
45°F
Sunny
Tomorrow
11 AM
51°F
Sunny

7 Day Forecast

Sunny

Monday

60 °F

Milder with sunshine; the start of a stretch of dry and mild weather


Clear

Monday Night

29 °F

Clear


Sunny

Tuesday

62 °F

Plenty of sunshine


Mostly clear

Tuesday Night

30 °F

Mainly clear


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

63 °F

Mostly sunny and beautiful


Mostly clear

Wednesday Night

30 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

66 °F

Sun and areas of high clouds and pleasant; breezy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Thursday Night

31 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Friday

61 °F

Becoming cloudy with a thundershower in spots in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Friday Night

32 °F

Mostly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
7:06 AM
Sunset
7:11 PM

Based on AccuWeather data