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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – February 1, 2018

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Our next two storms, while cooling things down to just a bit above normal temperatures, are going to be dominated by drying down slope flow.  Figure 1 shows the frontal system in place down the Front Range on Wednesday.  This is very shallow and not very moist air.

By midday today, the surface map hasn't changed much (Figure 2) but upper level dynamics (an approaching jet stream) will create some snow and freezing drizzle over northern Colorado.

Figure 3 is the total snowfall through late Thursday night/early Friday AM and we 'may' see a dusting to an inch if we are very lucky.  More likely, some freezing drizzle will glaze things and make bridges tricky to drive on. Figure 4 is the total precipitation which it is below the threshold of the lightest color.

Figure 1: Current surface analysis map from Wednesday afternoon from the Weather Channel.

Figure 2: The forecast surface analysis map from NCEP for Thursday midday.

Figure 3: Total snowfall between Wednesday afternoon and Friday early morning from the GFS and weather5280.com.

Figure 4: Total precipitation between Wednesday afternoon and Friday early morning from the GFS and weather5280.com.

The longer range forecast:

Our next storm, for the weekend leaves the same notch of low to no measurable snow up I-25 to almost Berthoud (down slope- Figure 5).  Note, the mountains pick up a foot of snow in the higher elevations near the Wyoming border. In the precipitation department (Figure 6), the 'very little precipitation' strip runs right up from Denver into Wyoming.

Figure 5: Total snowfall between Wednesday afternoon and Monday midday from the GFS and weather5280.com.

Figure 6: Total precipitation between Wednesday afternoon and Monday midday from the GFS and weather5280.com.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

55°F

UV Index
0 Low
Pressure
29.9 Rising
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
35 °F
Humidity
46%
Wind
WNW 3 mph
Gust
5.6 mph
Wind Chill
55 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
1 AM
54°F
Partly cloudy
Today
2 AM
51°F
Partly cloudy
Today
3 AM
48°F
Partly cloudy
Today
4 AM
46°F
Partly cloudy
Today
5 AM
44°F
Partly cloudy
Today
6 AM
42°F
Partly cloudy
Today
7 AM
43°F
Partly sunny
Today
8 AM
46°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 AM
49°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
10 AM
51°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
11 AM
54°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
12 PM
57°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ showers

Monday

78 °F

Warmer with a blend of sun and clouds; a couple of showers this afternoon


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

42 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and cooler


Partly cloudy w/ showers

Tuesday Night

39 °F

A couple of evening showers; otherwise, partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

76 °F

Pleasant and warmer with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Wednesday Night

40 °F

Patchy clouds


Mostly cloudy

Thursday

75 °F

Turning cloudy, warm; breezy, a thunderstorm around in the afternoon


Cloudy

Thursday Night

48 °F

Considerable cloudiness with a thundershower in parts of the area


Showers

Friday

71 °F

Mostly cloudy with a couple of showers


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

46 °F

Thundershowers in the evening; cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:11 AM
Sunset
7:47 PM

Based on AccuWeather data