Forecast Discussion:

I’ll mainly work with the scattered snow showers today.  We will have two periods of instability/lift over the state, one in the morning and another in the afternoon. With reinforced cold air, we’ll be cold enough for snow. Even if it is only snow flurries in the air.  The favorable mountain slopes may see up to 4″ of snow, but nothing measurable should build up on the Plains or along I-25.  It will be cold and blustery though, with less sun than we saw on Wednesday.

Figure 1 shows that there will be scattered showers all across the northern mountains and NE plains.  Anyone around might see a few periods of light snow.

Figure 2 is the GFS take. The gap along I-25 seems to be the snow-depressing effect of down-slope flow, but snow flurries are still possible in Longmont.  Figure 3 hints that a coating is possible IF everything went right for snow for us.

Figure 1: GFS run from snowfall accumulation between Wed PM and Thur PM.
Figure 2: GFS run from snowfall accumulation between Wed PM and Fri AM.
Figure 3: WPC 50 percentile run from snowfall accumulation between Wed PM and Fri AM.

The Longer Range Forecast:

The ridge will build in from the west – which will give California a break from the destructive Santa Ana winds, and will warm us nicely for a beautiful weekend.  More on that later!



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John Ensworth works from Longmont as the Principle Investigator for the NASA Science Mission Directorate Earth and space science education product review through the IGES (The Institute for Global Environmental Strategies – . He is in his 14th year running this review. He is an astronomer (from the 2nd grade onward) and became a meteorologist (in the 5th grade) when a thunderstorm in Arizona rained on his telescope when the weather service had only forecasted a 10% chance of rain. He has college degrees in physics and astronomy and climatology and a graduate degree in meteorology and earth science. He lectures at the Little Thompson Observatory in Berthoud, the Estes Park Memorial Observatory in Estes Park, and for a number of online universities. He built and runs a backyard observatory near Pace and 17th in northeast Longmont where he has lived for 8 years with his wife, daughter, son, and two cats. Invitations to open house nights at this observatory, LTO, and EPMO will be posted with future discussions when they are scheduled. Forecasting severe weather and snow amounts via text lead to this column. He began texting friends about the weather right after the September 2013 flood. The readers of this column will, hopefully, keep him honest in what he ‘thought’ he had forecasted for ‘the most recent’ storm.