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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 6, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

The Wednesday front comes racing in today, but things remain dry. Figure 1, the water vapor satellite image, shows that the tropical moisture is far to the south. But this front will bring in strong winds today (Figure 2). This figure has winds sustained around 20mph from the NNW around Longmont (and stronger up north).  Real cold air comes in as well with a high staying in the 30's today (Figure 3).  Bundle up!

Figure 1: Tuesday PM Water Vapor satellite image (dry air= red/brown, moist air = purple/white)

Figure 2: The surface winds - directions with flags, speed in colors for Wednesday afternoon.

Figure 3: surface air temperatures 2pm Wednesday forecast.

The longer range forecast:

Another front keeps temperatures cold for Thursday (Figure 4). We stay in the 30's tomorrow as well (with more wind).  There IS a chance of snow flurries around for this storm (but not much). Figure 5 is the total snowfall accumulation through the end of this week, and there is a dusting in the mountains and on spots on the Plains. Longmont probably remains dry.

By Friday (Figure 6) the western ridge finally moves in and we rapidly shoot up to highs in the 50's and then 60's on Saturday.  Go get a tan!

(The pure fantasy Christmas forecast, from accuweather.com, has cooled to highs in the upper 40's, but only partly cloudy skies.)

Figure 4: surface air temperatures 2pm Thursday forecast.

Figure 5: Total snowfall between now and Friday night from the GFS.

Figure 6: The GFS upper air forecast map for Friday PM.

Current Weather

Mostly cloudy

Mostly cloudy

68°F

UV Index
7 High
Pressure
29.59 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
30 °F
Humidity
24%
Wind
WNW 5.2 mph
Gust
11.1 mph
Wind Chill
68 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
2 PM
69°F
Thunderstorms
Today
3 PM
70°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
4 PM
68°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
5 PM
66°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
6 PM
61°F
Thunderstorms
Today
7 PM
58°F
Thunderstorms
Today
8 PM
56°F
Cloudy
Today
9 PM
53°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
51°F
Thunderstorms
Today
11 PM
49°F
Thunderstorms
Tomorrow
12 AM
48°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
48°F
Cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms

Friday

70 °F

Variable cloudiness; a morning shower in spots followed by a couple of thundershowers this afternoon; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Thunderstorms

Friday Night

44 °F

Cloudy; a couple of showers and a thunderstorm this evening followed by periods of rain late; gusty winds and small hail can accompany any downpour


Rain

Saturday

47 °F

Chilly with periods of rain and a thunderstorm; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Rain and snow

Saturday Night

36 °F

Cloudy with rain, mixed with a little snow late; travel in the foothills and mountains will be slippery due to snow


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

61 °F

Mostly cloudy and warmer


Intermittent clouds

Sunday Night

36 °F

A thunderstorm in spots in the evening; otherwise, partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Monday

71 °F

Partly sunny, pleasant and warmer


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

45 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Tuesday

73 °F

Pleasant with sunshine and patchy clouds


Partly cloudy

Tuesday Night

43 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:06 AM
Sunset
7:51 PM

Based on AccuWeather data