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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 4, 2017

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

I'll update this in the morning when some data has come in on what our cold front has done.  In short, again, it will be cold (upper 30's for a high), windy at times, and cloudy early on today. Very little precipitation will happen outside of the mountains.

Morning Update:

The surface wind field Monday AM shows the real wind push (and cooler air) were just approaching Longmont before 8am (Figure 1). There are a few snow showers up on the Wyoming border. Figure 2 is the frontal analysis and the earlier wind shift line and pressure drop is far down into New Mexico.  These things can come in waves.

The forecast map for just a few hours later (Figure 3) has the front even further south and some precipitation up mainly in southern Wyoming.  Yes, we missed out again.

Figure 1: MyRadar app for iOS image from 7:45am Monday.

Figure 2: The Weather Channel current surface map from Monday AM

Figure 3: Surface map forecast for midday Monday.

Longer range forecast:

A northerly jet flow will keep us cool (near seasonable/normal temperatures) with another weak front Tuesday and again on Thursday (Figure 4).  The GFS shows a small chance of precipitation in northern Colorado on Thursday.  Don't too excited yet though.

We do return to around 60F on the weekend as the ridge moves east!

Figure 4: 500mb upper air forecast map for Thursday PM from the GFS.

Figure 4: surface analysis forecast map for Thursday PM from the GFS.

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

33°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
30.32 Steady
Visibility
5 miles
Dewpoint
31 °F
Humidity
92%
Wind
NE 1.1 mph
Gust
2.7 mph
Wind Chill
33 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
10 AM
35°F
Cloudy
Today
11 AM
36°F
Cloudy
Today
12 PM
37°F
Cloudy
Today
1 PM
38°F
Snow
Today
2 PM
39°F
Cloudy
Today
3 PM
40°F
Cloudy
Today
4 PM
41°F
Cloudy
Today
5 PM
40°F
Cloudy
Today
6 PM
39°F
Rain and snow
Today
7 PM
38°F
Rain
Today
8 PM
37°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
9 PM
36°F
Intermittent clouds

7 Day Forecast

Rain and snow

Saturday

41 °F

Cloudy and cold; a bit of morning snow followed by a rain or snow shower in spots this afternoon; storm total 1-3"; roads could be slippery


Intermittent clouds

Saturday Night

32 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Sunday

63 °F

Partly sunny and warmer


Mostly clear

Sunday Night

41 °F

Mainly clear


Intermittent clouds

Monday

79 °F

Warmer with intervals of clouds and sun


Partly cloudy

Monday Night

42 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Tuesday

66 °F

Mostly cloudy and not as warm; a passing afternoon shower


Intermittent clouds

Tuesday Night

40 °F

Partly cloudy


Mostly sunny

Wednesday

79 °F

Mostly sunny, nice and warm


Intermittent clouds

Wednesday Night

44 °F

Partly cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
6:14 AM
Sunset
7:45 PM

Based on AccuWeather data