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The Next Storm/Next Snow Forecast Discussion from the Cherrywood Observatory – December 14, 2017 UPDATE

This content was originally published by the Longmont Observer and is licensed under a Creative Commons license.

Forecast Discussion:

Because the bulk of the current snow storm will occur pre-dawn today (Thursday), and this article is being written later Wednesday night - I'll update this post midday today.  It is usually better to look at the next storm after the current storm has played out as well.

A quick look at the last-minute model forecasts for this current snow...

Figure 1: The GFS 0.1-1 inch snow.

Figure 2: The HRRR 1.5-2 inches snow.

Figure 3: The WPC 1 to 1.5 inches snow.

Afternoon UPDATE:

Figure 4 shows the actual snow reports as of Thursday afternoon for Boulder county.

Longmont received about 1/2 to 3/4th inch of snow. Boulder picked up 1 to 3 inches.

Figure 5 is Larimer county - Estes Park received about 2 to 2.5 inches of snow. Ft. Collins received 0.1 to 3" going east to west.

Figure 6 is the Denver Metro - which received a coating in places to an inch out east up to 2 inches up in the lower foothills to the west.

The ends a (not quite the record) 65 days of snow drought.

Figure 1: The GFS total snow 24 hours out (ending Thursday PM).

Figure 2: The HRRR total snow 15 hours out (ending Thursday AM).

Figure 3: The WPC 50 percentile total snow 24 hours out (ending Saturday PM).

Afternoon UPDATE:

Figure 4: CoCoRaHS new snow reports as of Thursday midday for Boulder county.

Figure 5: CoCoRaHS new snow reports as of Thursday midday for Larimer county.

Figure 6: CoCoRaHS new snow reports as of Thursday midday for the Denver metro.

The longer range forecast:

We are still looking at snow from 8pm Saturday to 11am Sunday.  Details later...

Fantasy Christmas Forecast: According to accuweather.com, someone's letter to Santa worked. We now see Christmas Eve and Christmas Day with highs in the lower 30's and snow flurries possible Christmas morning.  That is quite a turn around in the super-long-range model.  And that is exciting!

Current Weather

Cloudy

Cloudy

58°F

UV Index
1 Low
Pressure
29.81 Steady
Visibility
8 miles
Dewpoint
40 °F
Humidity
51%
Wind
NNW 7.6 mph
Gust
16.1 mph
Wind Chill
58 °F

Hourly Forecast

Today
4 PM
61°F
Thunderstorms
Today
5 PM
60°F
Mostly cloudy
Today
6 PM
57°F
Mostly cloudy w/ t-storms
Today
7 PM
55°F
Intermittent clouds
Today
8 PM
56°F
Thunderstorms
Today
9 PM
53°F
Cloudy
Today
10 PM
50°F
Cloudy
Today
11 PM
48°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
12 AM
46°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
1 AM
44°F
Cloudy
Tomorrow
2 AM
42°F
Mostly cloudy
Tomorrow
3 AM
40°F
Mostly cloudy

7 Day Forecast

Partly sunny w/ t-storms

Wednesday

68 °F

Times of sun and clouds; a shower in spots this morning followed by a couple of thunderstorms this afternoon


Thunderstorms

Wednesday Night

35 °F

A thunderstorm this evening; otherwise, mostly cloudy


Intermittent clouds

Thursday

63 °F

A blend of sun and clouds


Mostly cloudy

Thursday Night

39 °F

Mostly cloudy


Partly sunny

Friday

64 °F

Some sun; breezy in the afternoon


Partly cloudy

Friday Night

36 °F

Partly cloudy


Partly sunny

Saturday

66 °F

Partial sunshine


Mostly clear

Saturday Night

41 °F

Clear to partly cloudy


Mostly cloudy

Sunday

78 °F

Rather cloudy and warmer; breezy in the afternoon


Mostly cloudy

Sunday Night

43 °F

Rather cloudy


Sunrise and Sunset

Sunrise
5:59 AM
Sunset
7:56 PM

Based on AccuWeather data